Esports Math
APPLIED PROBABILITY INSTITUTE // OPEN SCIENCE

Applied Research & Open Esports Telemetry Suite

Reproducible empirical studies, 10,000-map CS2/Dota 2 telemetry benchmarks, and open-source datasets for competitive ratings and market inefficiencies.

EMPIRICAL PREPRINT // 10,000 MAPS APPLIED PROBABILITY INSTITUTE • MARCH 2026

10,000-Map Telemetry Study: CS2 Economy Cascades & In-Play Inefficiencies

Exhaustive convergence analysis across Tier-1 tournaments, proving systemic bookmaker mispricing of pistol cascade momentum and defensive CT-sided comebacks.

CSV DATASET (1.4 KB)

Tier-1 CS2 Global Team Ratings (2026)

Dual Elo and Glicko-2 ratings, rating deviations (RD), skill volatilities, and 90-day win rates across the top 30 global organizations.

Download CSV (1.4 KB) ↓
CSV DATASET (2.1 KB)

CS2 Active Duty 7-Map Win Rate Matrix

Empirical win rates and round volume distributions across Mirage, Inferno, Anubis, Nuke, Ancient, Vertigo, and Dust II.

Download CSV (2.1 KB) ↓
PYTHON 3 VALIDATOR

Dataset Verification Suite (Python 3)

Deterministic test runner validating dataset row integrity, rating bounds, and win rate axioms with zero external dependencies.

Download Python Script (.py) ↓

Empirical Team Rating Vectors (Preview)

Subset of audited Tier-1 global teams ranked by Glicko-2 performance metrics:

VERIFIED DATASET
Rank Team Region Elo Rating Glicko-2 RD 90D Winrate
#1 Natus Vincere EU 1984 1965 ±42 71.4%
#2 Team Spirit CIS 1972 1958 ±45 70.2%
#3 FaZe Clan EU 1945 1930 ±48 67.5%
#4 Vitality EU 1938 1925 ±44 68.0%
#5 MOUZ EU 1912 1904 ±46 66.2%
#6 G2 Esports EU 1905 1892 ±52 64.8%

Open Science & Academic Reproducibility

In accordance with Open Science standards, all simulation matrices and telemetry verification scripts are released under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC-BY-4.0).

STEP 01

Download the CSV datasets directly or clone the public distribution package.

STEP 02

Execute the Python verification script to audit schema conformity and probability axioms.

STEP 03

Integrate the verified rating vectors into your proprietary quantitative models and betting tools.

🔬 GitHub Open Research Repositories (MIT / CC-BY-4.0)

Calculator algorithmic source code, Python verification suites, and open datasets are available on GitHub.

View on GitHub →