# Esports Math (esportsmath.org)

> Esports Math is an independent mathematical research initiative and client-side probabilistic verification suite for Esports Betting & Competitive Probability Analytics (CS2 and Dota 2).

## Mission
To provide rigorous probabilistic analysis, open-source verification tools, and quantitative education for competitive esports betting, deconstructing predictive algorithmic failures and providing verifiable client-side calculation engines.

## Core Tools
- [Elo & Glicko-2 Match Predictor](https://esportsmath.org/en/tools/elo-calculator/): True win probability calculator incorporating rating deviations (RD), series formats (Bo1/Bo3/Bo5), and dynamic K-factor shifts.
- [CS2 Map Veto & Series Analyzer](https://esportsmath.org/en/tools/map-veto-analyzer/): 7-map Active Duty Minimax game theory draft simulator calculating conditional map win rates and compound series odds.
- [Round-by-Round Live EV Tracker](https://esportsmath.org/en/tools/round-ev-tracker/): Real-time in-play mathematical expectation (+EV) tracker evaluating MR12 scorelines, economy buy states, and Half-Kelly bet allocations.
- [Player Impact & RAR Calculator](https://esportsmath.org/en/tools/player-impact-calculator/): Multi-dimensional performance deconstruction computing HLTV Rating 2.1, Role-Adjusted Rating (RAR z-score), and Negative Binomial prop kill lines.
- [Analysis Tools Hub](https://esportsmath.org/en/tools/): Complete suite of client-side deterministic esports betting calculators.

## Research Publications & Open Science Suite
- [10,000-Map Telemetry Preprint](https://esportsmath.org/en/research/cs2-dota2-tier1-telemetry-study/): Peer-reviewed empirical study on CS2 economy cascades, pistol momentum, and live sportsbook mispricing.
- [Applied Research Hub & Open Data](https://esportsmath.org/en/research/): Open Science data catalog distributing verified CSV datasets under CC-BY-4.0.
- [Bookmaker Margins Benchmark Index](https://esportsmath.org/en/benchmarks/esports-bookmaker-margins/): Empirical audit of overrounds across 150,000 tracked markets comparing 1win Esports against commercial sportsbooks.
- [Quantitative Esports Glossary](https://esportsmath.org/en/learn/glossary/): Comprehensive dictionary of 25 mathematical and competitive terms with analytical formulas.
- [Elo & Glicko-2 Rating Models Hub](https://esportsmath.org/en/learn/elo-glicko-rating-models/): Foundations of esports skill ratings, volatility, and roster change adjustments.
- [Map-Based Win Probability Hub](https://esportsmath.org/en/learn/map-based-win-probability/): Map pool depth, veto game theory, and series binomial compounding.
- [Live Odds & Momentum Models Hub](https://esportsmath.org/en/learn/live-odds-momentum-models/): Pistol cascades, economy resets, and CT/T map asymmetry.
- [Player Impact & Fantasy Models Hub](https://esportsmath.org/en/learn/player-impact-fantasy-models/): Decomposition of individual impact, RAR normalization, and kill prop distributions.

## Multilingual Support
- [English Version](https://esportsmath.org/en/): International research portal and tool suite.
- [Versão em Português](https://esportsmath.org/pt/): Portal de pesquisa e ferramentas matemáticas para o Brasil.
- [Versión en Español](https://esportsmath.org/es/): Portal de investigación y herramientas para América Latina.
- [Русская версия](https://esportsmath.org/ru/): Исследовательский портал и аналитические инструменты для СНГ.

## Operational Model & Commercial Disclosure
Esports Math operates independently by auditing third-party bookmaker margins and developing reproducible quantitative models. All verification tools run 100% locally in user browsers via native JavaScript and HTML5 Canvas, with zero credentials or private data transmitted to external servers. To sustain our open research lab, Esports Math maintains transparent affiliate partnerships with verified low-margin operators (such as 1win Esports at certified 3.2% vig), receiving referral compensation when users access live trading environments through disclosed gateway routes.

## Open-Source Repositories & Academic Software
- [Organization Profile](https://github.com/esportsmath-labs/.github): Institutional overview, research divisions, and BibTeX citation suite.
- [CS2 Veto Minimax Engine](https://github.com/esportsmath-labs/cs2-veto-minimax): Backward induction pick/ban draft engine for CS2 Active Duty 7-map pool (Bo1, Bo3, Bo5).
- [Elo & Glicko-2 Predictor](https://github.com/esportsmath-labs/elo-glicko2-predictor): Zero-dependency TypeScript rating conversion and conditional series probability model.
- [Round EV & Momentum Tracker](https://github.com/esportsmath-labs/round-ev-tracker): Discrete MR12 Markov state machine, pistol momentum cascades, and Half-Kelly bet sizing.
- [Player Impact & RAR Model](https://github.com/esportsmath-labs/player-impact-rar): Role-Adjusted Rating normalizer and Negative Binomial kill prop distribution generator.
- [Research Papers & Datasets](https://github.com/esportsmath-labs/research-papers): Open science preprints, 10,000-map telemetry datasets, verification suites, and CITATION.cff.

## Optional
- [Full Specification](https://esportsmath.org/llms-full.txt): Complete architectural specifications, mathematical formulas, and probability proofs.
- [GitHub Organization](https://github.com/esportsmath-labs): Institutional portfolio and open-source scientific repositories.